Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) has long been at the center of discussions about technological innovation and stock market volatility. The semiconductor giant, known for pushing the boundaries in graphics, computing, and high-performance processing units, is again at a pivotal moment. After a pronounced correction from its 2024 highs, AMD’s chart now reveals what Elliott Wave traders would call a textbook impulsive reversal — a strong five-wave move that typically precedes a continued rally.
Important: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Personally, I advise against using derivative products, leverage, or options due to the high intrinsic risk.
The daily chart and recent price action suggest that the correction might be ending, and a new bullish phase is underway. This is significant not just for AMD investors, but also for swing traders and Elliott Wave practitioners seeking high-probability entries.
🌀 Understanding the Elliott Wave Setup
The Elliott Wave Theory, first popularized by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, posits that financial markets move in repetitive cycles based on crowd psychology. A full impulsive cycle typically unfolds in five waves: three motive waves (1, 3, 5) in the direction of the trend, interspersed with two corrective waves (2 and 4).
In AMD’s case, we’re seeing:
- A five-wave impulse leg upward from the June 2025 low.
- The first wave of Wave 3 appears to be completing.
- A potential Wave 2 correction is likely near-term.
- Major resistance levels lie above, but we are in a clear uptrend channel.
This setup makes AMD a compelling watch for long setups after a short pullback.
🔍 Current Market Context and Technical Outlook
AMD began 2024 with strong momentum, climbing toward $225 (€208) in March, only to face a sharp selloff amid broader tech market rotation and profit-taking pressures. The retracement bottomed out near $126 (€117) in early June 2025 — a level that coincides with Fibonacci support zones from the previous bullish cycle.
Daily Chart Key Levels (as of July 8, 2025)
| Level | USD Price | EUR Price (approx.) | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support 1 | $126 | €117 | Wave 2 zone & key Fibonacci retracement |
| Resistance 1 | $166 | €154 | Gap-fill target from 2024 breakdown |
| Resistance 2 | $186 | €172 | Minor resistance, top of sub-wave 3 |
| Resistance 3 | $228 | €211 | Wave 3 full projection |
| Resistance 4 | $296 | €274 | Channel top, Wave 5 extreme target |
🔁 Wave Analysis Breakdown
Let’s go deeper into what the Elliott Wave count implies for AMD:
🔹 Wave 1:
Started from $77 (€66) in April 2025, ending near $123 (€106) in May. Strong volume confirmed participation, with minor retracements that stayed within bullish trend lines. RSI divergence was minimal.
🔹 Wave 2 :
Pullback towards the $108 (€92) area was healthy and ideal for entering long positions. Given the strength of Wave 1, Wave 2 was shallow and fast.
🔹 Wave 3:
This is traditionally the most powerful wave. Projections from the Fibonacci extension place it near $228 (€211), if volume persists and macro conditions support tech could also extend. We are currently in the end of w1 of W3 and w2 retracement of W3 should start soon with $126 (€108) target area.
🔹 Wave 4 & 5:
Too early to count accurately, but Wave 5 could take AMD up to $296 (€274) — a level that aligns with a larger channel top and macro sentiment highs.
🧠 Macro Factors Supporting AMD’s Upside
Several tailwinds could fuel AMD’s rally through the next impulsive cycle:
- AI and Data Center Growth AMD’s continued push into AI acceleration and data center hardware remains a major catalyst. Its MI300 series and next-gen EPYC chips are gaining traction in enterprise markets.
- Gaming and GPU Dominance NVIDIA remains dominant in high-end GPUs, but AMD is chipping away at the mid-tier segment and becoming increasingly competitive.
- Foundry Independence Outsourcing to TSMC ensures AMD avoids the capital-intensive burdens faced by Intel, allowing it to scale nimbly.
- U.S. Chip Act & Government Subsidies Continued U.S. government subsidies are bolstering semiconductor firms. AMD is expected to benefit from additional support by Q4 2025.
- Technical Setup & Market Sentiment From a trader’s perspective, the current chart shows bullish momentum, volume confirmation, and clear impulsive structure.
🧮 Fundamental Valuation Metrics
Let’s look at AMD’s key financials as of July 2025:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $263B (€244B) |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 36 |
| Forward P/E | 30 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $25.4B (€23.6B) |
| Net Income | $4.1B (€3.8B) |
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.45 |
| ROE | 21.3% |
Compared to peers like Intel (INTC) and NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD still trades at a slight discount, offering better upside if current trends continue.
📊 Scenario-Based Forecast
| Scenario | Description | Target Price | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Wave 3 extends and macro tailwinds persist | $228–$296 (€211–€274) | 50% |
| Base Case | Wave 3 completes, mild correction, Wave 5 forms | $185–$228 (€172–€211) | 35% |
| Bearish | Failure of Wave 2 support, broader tech pullback | $126–$140 (€117–€129) | 15% |
💡 Trading Strategy: Long Bias After Pullback
For swing traders:
- Wait for Wave 2 (of W3) pullback, likely around $126.
- Enter long positions with stop below $116.
- Targets: $186 → $228 → $296.
For long-term investors:
- Consider phased entries if price reclaims $160.
- Accumulate with a view toward Q4 2025 and 2026 expansion.
For options traders:
- Bull call spreads targeting $185 by September.
- Protective puts if entering early to hedge short-term volatility.
🔗 Sources & References
- TradingView: AMD Elliott Wave Chart
- Yahoo Finance: AMD Financials
- Elliott Wave International
- Nasdaq News on AMD
- U.S. CHIPS and Science Act
🧭 Conclusion
AMD’s current Elliott Wave pattern suggests a powerful new impulsive cycle is underway, with significant upside potential if the Wave 2 correction holds. Technicals, fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions all align for a bullish case into late 2025. Traders and investors alike should be watching closely for confirmation on dips, as the $126–$137 support zone could serve as a launchpad for the next leg up toward $228–$296.
Important: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Personally, I advise against using derivative products, leverage, or options due to the high intrinsic risk.
Whether you’re an Elliott Wave trader, options strategist, or long-term investor, AMD offers one of the most compelling setups in the semiconductor space for the second half of 2025.