As the global debate continues over whether cryptocurrencies can take the place of traditional currencies and digital payments, Bitcoin continues to increase trade and become an increasingly popular and traded currency. Unfortunately, we all expected a year-end bull-run to kick off 2022 with a bang, but the opposite happened and now BTC is flirting with the sacred level of 42K. Difficult to make an estimate as for the moment there is a certain mistrust even on the part of central banks, so what should we expect in the months to come?
PlanB (@100trillionUSD) fooled everyone a bit. Warning – we love PlanB and its models, now we’re just a little sarcastic. Our Bitcoin bull-guru had told us that by the end of the year we would have reached around 135,000 USD in value for Bitcoin and we, consequently, had planned to sell on those figures and then buy back in the following descent. But the opposite happened, Bitcoin got stuck in the 42K-52K channel and hit hard against the Chinese wall present on 52K, returning in strength towards 42K. So, as he stated: “Nov98K & Dec135K miss = FLOOR MODEL FAIL”.
Most people talk about a recovery only up but not down, beginners invest according to the people they follow and they can lose their money which can generate a low but regular income instead of a long-pending deposit waiting for some peaks. The 135K rush failed, now people expect it in the next quarter and if it fails, the next quarter, but if it doesn’t and BTC breaks the 42K support.
Basically, there hasn’t been any movement in the 40K-60K range since February 2021, so now, up or down, that’s the question.
From the annual highs to date, the decline has been around 19.92%. Is this retracement an opportunity to buy or is it better to wait for further declines? End of the Bitcoin rush?
Let’s not joke, we remain assiduous believers of the crypto world in general and of Bitcoin above all, but we must still try to understand what is happening right now, why the 135K plan has failed and what to expect in the near future.
Bitcoin. A possible strategy for the short term and possible levels of holding
We remain of the idea that every Bitcoin dip is a great opportunity, we are convinced that – sooner or later – BTC will easily exceed $100,000 in value; but we lean towards a market that has transformed. The market went from super bullish to bullish/bearish.
Let’s proceed step by step and resume the projections made in and for the following 12 months or until the end of 2022.
- We find a safe minimum and hold area between $32,000 and $42,000
- We also have a related maximum area for further waiting between $52,000 and $62,000
Possible scenarios for Bitcoin in the short term
We have two different possible counts on Bitcoin in the short term thanks to the Elliott Waves.
- The Bullish 1-2-3-4-5 count with the development from here of the W5 and I arrive above $72000. Key levels are the holding of $42000 and at the top – but this level is not usual – a drop to 0.786 on the $37000.
- The Bearish A-B-C count with the extension of the C line and possible arrivals at $33,000 or down to the 1,272 level of approximately $23,000.
Let’s see if it holds up the support trend and historical levels at $42,000, $40,000, $36,000 and $32,000.
What are the levels that will continue to keep this projection intact?
Until a weekly and then monthly close of less than $30,000 occurs, in the coming months we will continue to project the updating of new highs compared to those already marked.
End of the Bitcoin rush?
Here are the levels to monitor – with a possible investment strategy for the coming months.
At the moment the weekly / monthly trend is bearish and until we see a weekly close above $52,000, lows below the $36,000 – $42,000 area will be possible in the next few months.
Where is the warning?
A January close below $40,000 would be a strong medium-term bearish signal that could begin to question the long-term trend of the cryptocurrency.
Which investment strategy?
At the moment, stay on the sidelines waiting for developments, if you are not already operational. Otherwise, mediate downwards and continue to increase your cryptocurrency assets thanks to the DCA strategy, or dollar cost average.
Who to follow for juicy info on Bitcoin?
- Anthony Pompliano – Fundamentals of Bitcoin & Crypto – https://twitter.com/APompliano
- PlanB – Bitcoin analysis – For informational purposes only – https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD
- Willy Woo – Bitcoin on-chain analyst: extracting investment signals from its blockchain – https://twitter.com/woonomic
- Andreas Antonopoulos – Bitcoin & Open Blockchains – Author – https://twitter.com/aantonop
- Cameron Winklevoss – Former Gemini Exchange and BTC supporter – https://twitter.com/cameron
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